The transition from the current situation to an Efficiency Scenario in transport can be developed over time following different trajectories, according to the impetus given to the implementation of efficiency measures and intelligence in the energy system. Three hypotheses have been chosen: responsible, linear and delayed.


The figure presents the outcomes corresponding to the calibrated model for the scenarios of total energy demand in both BAU and Efficiency, along with the three transition scenarios considered. It is noticeable that the reduction in the rate of demand that needs to be deployed in the early stages of the responsible scenario is considerably less than that faced in the delayed scenario in the later years of the considered period: the greater the delay to resolutely address the problem, the more difficult it will be to resolve.


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