The first step in the development of energy demand scenarios in building is to determine the surface area built up by 2050. The same scenario of urbanised land area has been considered for both the BAU and Efficiency Scenarios.


The surface area considered for the residential sector has been calculated from the GDP trend scenario, so a useful residential building area of 65 m2/per person can be expected by 2050. Along with the assumed distribution of the population per province, the total useful area for residential purposes by 2050 would amount to 3,894 km2.


For the tertiary sector, the ratios of constructed surface area for the service sector per autonomous region are projected to 2050, bearing in mind a post-crisis stabilisation and the convergence of the urban development model in the capitals of different provinces. According to these outcomes, the useful area for service sector build by 2050 would reach 1,027 km2.